Islamabad, Pakistan – Amid a flurry of congratulatory messages from political leaders worldwide following his victory within the US presidential election, Donald Trump obtained a message from an surprising supply: Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan, his “excellent pal” who’s presently in jail.
In a short, 55-word submit on his X social media account, Khan congratulated Trump on his win and mentioned the need of the American individuals “held in opposition to all odds”.
“President Elect Trump might be good for Pak-US relations primarily based on mutual respect for democracy and human rights. We hope he’ll push for peace, human rights, and democracy globally,” Khan’s message learn.
Congratulations on behalf of myself & PTI to @realDonaldTrump for successful the US Presidential Elections. The desire of the American individuals held in opposition to all odds.
President Elect Trump might be good for Pak-US relations primarily based on mutual respect for democracy & human rights. We hope…
— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) November 6, 2024
The submit factors to among the methods during which a deeply divided Pakistan’s relationship with the US beneath a second Trump presidency might be examined, say analysts.
Will Trump intervene on Khan’s behalf?
Whereas most specialists imagine Pakistan is unlikely to be a precedence for the brand new administration, Khan’s occasion, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), is hopeful that Trump’s win might ease the political troubles confronted by the previous prime minister, who simply two years in the past accused the US, beneath President Joe Biden, of meddling in Pakistan’s home politics to take away him from energy.
Former Pakistan president and a senior member of PTI, Arif Alvi, congratulated Trump for his victory, including that “free and honest” elections allowed “the residents of America to make their goals come true”.
“We stay up for continued cooperation as democratic nations. Certainly, your victory should have despatched shivers down the backbone of dictators and aspiring dictators of the world,” Alvi wrote on platform X.
However Pakistan’s officers appeared assured that the US beneath Trump wouldn’t strain them for Khan’s launch – and laid down Islamabad’s purple line on the matter.
“Pakistan and america are previous mates and companions, and we are going to proceed to pursue our relationships on the premise of mutual respect, mutual confidence and noninterference in one another’s home affairs,” Pakistan’s International Ministry spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch informed reporters on Thursday.
Joshua White, a former White Home official for South Asian affairs beneath the Obama administration, advised that engagement with Pakistan will probably be a “low precedence” for Trump’s crew.
White, now a non-resident fellow on the Brookings Establishment, famous that Pakistan is primarily considered by way of a counterterrorism lens in Washington, with “little urge for food” for renewing a broader safety or financial partnership.
“It’s believable that somebody in Trump’s circle may encourage him to deal with Khan’s case or the PTI’s place extra usually,” White informed Al Jazeera, “however it’s unlikely he would use the US authorities’s affect to strain the Pakistani army on this matter.”
After Khan was eliminated by way of a parliamentary vote of no confidence in April 2022, he accused the US of colluding with Pakistan’s army to take away him, a declare each Washington and Islamabad deny.
However relations have since warmed regularly between the 2 nations, with the Biden administration appointing Donald Blome as US ambassador to Pakistan in Might 2022, filling a place vacant since August 2018.
All through the crackdown on Khan and PTI, together with Khan’s imprisonment since August 2023, US authorities have largely kept away from commenting, citing it as an inside matter for Pakistan to resolve.
Nonetheless, following controversial basic elections in February, the place the PTI claimed their majority was curtailed by way of a “mandate theft”, the US stopped wanting characterising the election as free and honest.
Congress subsequently held a listening to on the “way forward for democracy” in Pakistan, spurred by legislators urging President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to scrutinise the election end result. In October, greater than 60 democratic legislators urged Biden to make use of Washington’s affect with Pakistan to safe Khan’s launch.
Though Trump had criticised Pakistan in his first time period, accusing it of offering “nothing however lies and deceit”, he developed a rapport with Khan in the course of the latter’s premiership from 2018 to 2022.
The 2 first met in Washington in July 2019 and once more in Davos in January 2020, the place Trump referred to Khan as his “excellent pal”. Against this, relations between Khan and Biden have been frosty, with Khan typically complaining about Biden by no means making contact with him.
Simply days earlier than the November 5 election, Atif Khan, a senior PTI chief, additionally met Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, to debate issues about Khan’s incarceration.
Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US and the UK, questioned expectations that Trump may intervene on Khan’s behalf.
“Whereas Trump and Khan loved a heat relationship, Pakistan doesn’t determine prominently amongst US overseas coverage priorities,” Lodhi informed Al Jazeera. “Relations are at a crossroads and want redefinition, but it surely’s unclear how a Trump administration can be in partaking on this entrance.”
Will Pakistan matter extra – or much less – to the US beneath Trump?
International coverage professional Muhammad Faisal added that Pakistan, which had some engagement with the US beneath Trump as a result of Afghanistan battle, might now obtain much less consideration because the administration grapples with points like Gaza, Ukraine, and US-China tensions.
“The presidency might be extra targeted on home coverage and international commerce points. Pakistan’s home politics shouldn’t be a subject of mutual curiosity for the incoming Trump administration,” the Sydney-based analyst mentioned.
Nonetheless, some see Pakistan’s relevance to US pursuits doubtlessly rising if tensions within the Center East rise, notably with Iran.
“Pakistan’s significance might develop if tensions between the US and Iran escalate,” Washington-based geopolitical commentator Uzair Younus informed Al Jazeera. “In such a state of affairs, Pakistan might function a associate to restrict the affect of Iran’s regional proxies.”
The China check
Pakistan’s ties with China might additionally come beneath the microscope, mentioned different observers.
China, Pakistan’s longstanding ally, has invested closely in Pakistan by way of the $62bn China-Pakistan Financial Hall, a flagship undertaking beneath Chinese language President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Highway Initiative.
Pakistan’s rising financial dependence on China has led to issues amongst worldwide lenders, notably given Pakistan’s $130bn debt, with 30 p.c owed to China.
Niloufer Siddiqui, an affiliate professor of political science on the College at Albany, State College of New York, mentioned Pakistan might need two causes to stay cautious beneath Trump.
“The primary is that overseas support to Pakistan could also be additional minimize throughout his tenure. The second is that given Trump’s hawkishness on China, Pakistan might discover itself caught between wanting to enhance relations with america however nonetheless keep its shut strategic alliance with China. This balancing act is more likely to get trickier beneath Trump,” she informed Al Jazeera.
Whereas Pakistan was one of many highest recipients of US support in the course of the preliminary years of the struggle in Afghanistan, the final six years have seen a drastic discount, with the nation receiving simply greater than $950m of support, in response to a 2023 Congress report.
White, the previous Obama authorities official, echoed this sentiment, noting that Trump’s advisers are more likely to view China as an adversary and will subsequently method Pakistan with some warning, perceiving it as an ally of Beijing.
“The incoming Trump crew is more likely to be led by officers who see China in stark phrases as a political, army, and financial adversary of america. As such, they are going to be inclined to view Pakistan with suspicion as a rustic inside China’s sphere of affect,” he added.
As Trump’s inauguration in January approaches, the following few months will reveal how relations between the US and Pakistan may evolve, say specialists. However finally, they recommend that any important change is unlikely.
“With the US probably investing its consideration and vitality on China and the Indo-Pacific area, and a struggle in Afghanistan now not occupying American consideration, probably the most Pakistan can hope for is sustained engagement on the economic system, local weather change and counterterrorism,” Fahd Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts College, informed Al Jazeera.