United States President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on the easy message that he’ll repair what he sees because the nation’s issues: the border, inflation, housing costs, healthcare.
After Trump gained the 2024 election, we requested PolitiFact readers to ship us their questions on his marketing campaign guarantees. Most have been about taxes, immigration, abortion, the Inexpensive Care Act, Social Safety and Medicare.
Trump and Republican congressional leaders seem poised to concentrate on immigration and financial guarantees. Republicans can have a Senate majority and, pending a couple of uncalled races, are additionally anticipated to have a slender majority within the Home of Representatives.
We tracked and rated 100 guarantees throughout Trump’s 2024 marketing campaign. Some hinge on conditions not totally inside his management – equivalent to his promise to finish the Russia-Ukraine struggle inside 24 hours of taking workplace.
Throughout Trump’s first presidency, he broke about half his marketing campaign guarantees, stored about one-quarter and for the remaining achieved a compromise.
We requested the Trump marketing campaign about his 2024 guarantees, together with his timeframe for telling the general public his priorities for the start of his time period. The marketing campaign didn’t reply our questions however did ship a quick assertion.
“The American individuals re-elected President Trump by a convincing margin giving him a mandate to implement the guarantees he made on the marketing campaign path,” transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt stated. “He’ll ship.”
Financial system
Reader: “Does Trump plan any tax breaks for middle-income Individuals? Any youngster credit?”
Trump’s plan to resume his 2017 tax invoice wouldn’t present new tax cuts a lot as stop a pointy tax escalation that might in any other case have hit if the regulation expired on schedule in 2025. Trump has not pledged to increase the kid tax credit score. In March 2023, he did float a “child bonus” of money for households with newborns however didn’t repeat this concept later within the marketing campaign.
Trump promised to finish taxation on ideas, which might have an effect on about 2.5 % of staff. Trump additionally stated he’d finish taxation of Social Safety advantages, time beyond regulation pay and automobile mortgage curiosity. All of those insurance policies would require congressional motion.
Nonetheless, Trump has additionally pledged to enact a ten % to twenty % across-the-board import tariff. If he follows by means of, the value will increase on client items “might greater than offset the advantages” of Trump’s different proposed tax adjustments, Garrett Watson, a Tax Basis senior coverage analyst, stated.
Reader: “Does Trump have any plans to scale back the price of housing and leases?”
The one promise of Trump’s that addresses housing is his thought to create “freedom cities” on federal land. It’s unclear whether or not these may very well be constructed rapidly sufficient to have any fast, measurable impact on the US housing provide.
However specialists stated one Trump promise might make housing much more costly: tighter immigration controls and mass deportations.
Deporting immigrants who’re within the nation illegally and limiting immigrants legally coming into the nation “dangers doing severe harm to the availability aspect of housing”, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a Columbia Enterprise Faculty actual property and finance professor, stated. “Some trades like roofing, masonry and drywall set up are extremely reliant on immigrant labour. There are persistent labour shortages in plumbing and electrical work that immigrants assist mitigate.”
Reader: “Trump has stated he would slap Mexico with a 25 % tariff. I dwell in Arizona, and a superb share of our produce is from Mexico. How will this have an effect on meals and tequila costs?”
For grocery prices, specialists stated the impact on meals costs will hinge on the dimensions of the tariffs Trump decides to impose and whether or not he permits carve-outs for sure sectors. If the tariffs are broad and deep, they may increase meals costs.
“Revenue margins for meals are very low,” so the probability that producers would take up the elevated prices moderately than passing them alongside to customers “wouldn’t be sustainable”, Ross E Burkhart, a Boise State College political scientist and commerce specialist, stated.
US meals producers “can not rapidly increase their manufacturing of meals to offset the demand for essential merchandise”, Burkhart stated. With constant demand however smaller provide, costs would rise.
Tariffs on imported agricultural inputs from tractors to fertiliser would contribute individually to larger meals costs, Joseph V Balagtas, a Purdue College agricultural economist, stated.
Lastly, Trump’s proposed mass deportations and stricter immigration limits would hamper farmers, who depend on immigrant staff. Much less labour means extra crop spoilage and better costs, Burkhart stated.
As for tequila, its worth “will rise with a tariff and undoubtedly so will the price of a margarita”, Burkhart stated.
Immigration
Reader: “Inform me extra about this mass deportation plan. Who can he deport? By way of what authorized and logistical mechanisms?”
Trump promised “to hold out the most important home deportation operation in American historical past”, however he hasn’t detailed plans or defined how he can pay for it. He stated he would start by deporting criminals; that’s not a brand new thought. Memos below President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama known as for a similar.
Trump stated he’ll enlist the assistance of native regulation enforcement and the Nationwide Guard, however he can anticipate resistance from Democratic-led states and cities.
In April, he advised Time journal that constructing mass deportation camps and utilizing the US army weren’t out of the query. Tom Homan, whom Trump named “border czar”, advised Fox Information in an interview on Monday that office raids will likely be a part of the technique. NBC Information, quoting unnamed sources, reported that the Trump administration goals to double the present 41,000 immigration detention beds within the short-term whereas individuals await deportation. NBC reported that choices additionally embrace utilizing personal prisons that aren’t full.
Immigration specialists have advised PolitiFact that mass deportation efforts would possible fail due to considerations over price and constitutionality. The American Immigration Council estimated the price of a mass deportation plan at $88bn a yr for a complete price of $967.9bn over greater than a decade.
Reader: “How will Trump repeal birthright citizenship?”
Trump failed throughout his first presidency to fulfil his promise to finish individuals’s proper to routinely have US citizenship once they’re born within the US, no matter their dad and mom’ immigration standing. Authorized specialists advised us that makes an attempt to finish birthright citizenship would immediate a courtroom battle and will require a constitutional modification.
Abortion
Reader: “What insurance policies does Trump plan to enact instantly relating to abortion?”
Trump has neither promised nor introduced plans to enact abortion insurance policies. Since April, he has stated he believes abortion laws needs to be “left to the states” and advised reporters he wouldn’t signal a nationwide ban.
In August, Trump advised CBS Information he wouldn’t use the Comstock Act, a nineteenth century regulation that bans mailing “obscene” supplies, to ban mailing abortion tablets.
Throughout his first presidency, Trump endorsed a 20-week nationwide abortion ban that Home Republicans backed. Earlier than he adopted his leave-it-to-the-states strategy in 2024’s marketing campaign, Trump floated help for 15- or 16-week federal abortion bans.
Trump’s first administration blocked organisations that present abortion providers from receiving sure federal funds. Biden overturned the directive, however the incoming Trump administration might revert to the coverage.
Healthcare
Reader: “May Trump repeal the Inexpensive Care Act?”
Trump broke his 2016 marketing campaign promise to repeal the Inexpensive Care Act (ACA). Prior to now yr, he has stated he is not going to strive once more to repeal it, however he and Congress might change it considerably
To offset tax cuts he’s anticipated to make, Trump would possible have to think about slicing Medicaid and the Inexpensive Care Act market, stated Cynthia Cox, an ACA knowledgeable at KFF, a well being coverage analysis group.
Trump’s administration will face a call subsequent yr on whether or not to again an extension of enhanced premium subsidies for the well being regulation’s insurance policy. With out the improved subsidies, steep premium will increase are projected. And with out the improved subsidies, the present 8 % uninsured fee, which is close to a file low, would virtually actually rise.
Reader: “How will Social Safety be affected?”
Trump promised to not change the Social Safety retirement age or scale back profit ranges.
If he retains these guarantees, the programme would proceed with out adjustments for the subsequent few years.
Nonetheless, Trump’s total proposed fiscal insurance policies, equivalent to tax breaks, would speed up Social Safety’s insolvency by roughly three years, from 2034 to 2031, Committee for a Accountable Federal Funds projections present. This could lead to massive, across-the-board cuts in beneficiary funds, beginning six years from now. The committee estimated a 33 % reduce in advantages in 2035 except the retirement age or taxes are raised or advantages are reduce by a smaller quantity; that’s up from the 23 % reduce at present projected.
LGBTQ points
Reader: “Does Trump help same-sex marriage?”
As many politicians from each main political events did, Trump modified his stance on same-sex marriage. In 2015, Trump stated, “I believe the establishment of marriage needs to be between a person and a girl.” However shortly after he was elected in 2016, he described the difficulty as “settled” by the US Supreme Court docket.
In 2015, the US Supreme Court docket ruling in Obergefell v Hodges meant that same-sex marriage turned authorized nationwide. Earlier than the 5-4 ruling, about three dozen of the 50 states allowed same-sex marriage.
Reader: “What influence might [Trump’s] administration have on transgender [health]care?”
Trump opposes youth entry to gender-affirming care. He stated he would ask Congress to go a regulation “prohibiting youngster sexual mutilation in all 50 states”. This yr, a number of such congressional payments didn’t turn into regulation. Consultants have advised PolitiFact it’s inaccurate to characterise gender-affirming surgical procedures as “mutilation”.
The Supreme Court docket will hear arguments on December 4 in United States v Skrmetti concerning the legality of a Tennessee regulation that prohibits gender-affirming look after minors. A ruling is anticipated in 2025’s first half and will have an effect on the legality of proposed future federal actions.
Elana Redfield, an LGBTQ authorized points knowledgeable on the Williams Institute on the College of California, Los Angeles, stated Trump is prone to rescind a Biden administration rule that categorises many denials of gender-affirming care as prohibited discrimination.
Venture 2025
Reader: “[How] does Venture 2025 work into [Trump’s] plan?”
Venture 2025 is a 900-page coverage doc written by conservative coverage specialists, lots of whom have ties to Trump’s first administration. Trump has distanced himself from the plan.
A few of Venture 2025’s coverage objectives overlap with Trump’s marketing campaign guarantees, equivalent to eliminating the federal Division of Schooling, reinstating a ban on transgender individuals serving within the army, establishing a southern border wall and reclassifying federal staff to make them simpler to fireplace.
However there are different Venture 2025 concepts that Trump didn’t personally espouse. For instance, Venture 2025 had pages of urged adjustments – lots of them imprecise – for the Nationwide Climate Service and the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). We rated claims that Venture 2025 needs to do away with the 2 companies as half-true, and we discovered no such proposals on Trump’s points web page on his marketing campaign web site.
“There’s zero % likelihood that something in Venture 2025 associated to NOAA or climate will ever be thought-about or carried out,” Ryan Maue wrote on X. Maue is a meteorologist who briefly served as NOAA’s chief scientist below Trump, The Washington Submit reported.
Schooling
Reader: “What’s going to occur to public faculties?”
Throughout his marketing campaign, Trump adopted the lead of a technology of conservative activists who’ve known as for abolishing the Schooling Division, but it surely has not occurred. The division supplies about 10 % of the college budgets nationally for kindergarten by means of twelfth grade, enforces legal guidelines that have an effect on funding for particular training and low-income college students, and oversees the $1.6 trillion federal pupil mortgage programme.
If Trump doesn’t eradicate the division, different choices might embrace eliminating programmes, eradicating profession bureaucrats or proposing tighter budgets.
Michael J Petrilli, president of the conservative Thomas B Fordham Institute and a Trump critic, advised PolitiFact that Trump possible can have little direct influence on training coverage, on condition that the difficulty shouldn’t be a prime precedence for him. Petrilli doesn’t see Congress jettisoning the Schooling Division, however he stated there may very well be notable oblique results on faculties. For instance, Petrilli stated Trump’s deportation plans increase questions on whether or not the federal authorities will educate youngsters in detention.
Petrilli stated: “Who’s going to face up such faculties? Pay for them?”
PolitiFact employees writers Grace Abels, Samantha Putterman and Maria Ramirez Uribe contributed to this report.