The U.S. presidential election will happen on Nov. 5, however the winner of the razor-thin race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump is probably not recognized for days after the polls shut.
As ballots are counted, one candidate might seem like main based mostly on early returns, just for a rival to shut the hole as extra votes are tallied.
In 2020, some states skilled a “crimson mirage,” wherein Trump gave the impression to be main on election evening, earlier than a “blue shift” noticed Democrat Joe Biden overtake him, a phenomenon Trump used to amplify his false claims that the election was stolen.
Nothing untoward had occurred. Democrats are likely to dwell in additional populous city areas, the place counting votes takes longer. Democrats even have embraced mail voting extra readily than Republicans after Trump’s false claims that mail ballots are untrustworthy, and people ballots take longer to depend than Election Day votes. Trump has each inspired and criticized early and mail-in voting in 2024.
Democrats are outpacing Republicans in mail ballots as soon as once more this 12 months, based on an early vote tracker maintained by the College of Florida’s Election Lab, although Republicans have narrowed the hole.
There are seven battleground states prone to determine the election, every with its personal guidelines for dealing with and counting ballots. This is what to anticipate on Election Day and past:
Arizona
Voting by mail is extraordinarily well-liked in Arizona; practically 90% of voters solid their ballots early, most by mail, in 2020. Election officers in Arizona can start processing and tabulating mail ballots upon receipt, however outcomes can’t be launched till one hour after polls shut.
Any mail ballots dropped off on Election Day itself can’t be processed till the polls have closed. That’s typically a large quantity – in 2022, these “late early” votes comprised one-fifth of all ballots in Maricopa County, the state’s largest – and may take days to depend.
The preliminary outcomes on election evening must be principally early votes, which may favor Harris, earlier than the numbers shift towards Trump as Election Day votes are tallied.
Georgia
Early in-person voting is well-liked in Georgia, the place officers count on 65% to 70% of ballots to be solid at early ballot areas. Absentee or mail ballots, which can comprise round 5% of the vote, will be processed – which incorporates steps equivalent to verifying signatures – beginning two weeks earlier than the election, although employees should wait till Election Day to start counting them.
All early votes – in-person and mail – have to be counted and reported by 8 p.m. ET (0000 GMT) on election evening, based on state legislation, which may create a “blue mirage” in Harris’ favor at first. Officers are aiming to have all votes, together with these from Election Day, tallied by midnight.
Ballots from abroad and navy voters shall be accepted as much as three days after the election if postmarked by Nov. 5. There have been greater than 21,000 such ballots requested, so an especially shut election won’t be resolved till these votes are tabulated.
Michigan
Because the 2020 election, Michigan has instituted early in-person voting for the primary time and begun allowing jurisdictions with greater than 5,000 individuals to start processing and tabulating mail ballots eight days earlier than Election Day. Smaller jurisdictions can achieve this the day earlier than Nov. 5.
Officers hope these modifications will enable the state to report outcomes extra shortly than in 2020, when mail ballots couldn’t be processed prematurely. That created a “crimson mirage” on election evening, when the state’s early counts of Election Day votes favored Trump. Biden finally surpassed Trump on the energy of mail ballots, which took longer to tally. Trump falsely claimed he was the sufferer of fraud.
Nevada
Nevada’s sluggish vote counting in 2020 – information retailers didn’t name the state for Biden till 5 days after Election Day – launched numerous memes, however officers say modifications since then ought to pace up the method.
Most notably, counties have been permitted to start processing and counting mail ballots on Oct. 21. As well as, employees can begin tabulating early in-person votes at 8 a.m. PT (1500 GMT) on Election Day, reasonably than ready till polls shut.
However Nevada nonetheless won’t get referred to as instantly. Mail voting has grown well-liked within the state, and it’s the solely battleground that accepts late-arriving mail ballots. That might additionally create a “blue shift” as extra votes are counted.
Any poll postmarked by Nov. 5 will nonetheless be counted if it arrives inside 4 days. These late ballots traditionally favor Democrats, so a shift towards Harris may happen as votes are counted after Election Day.
North Carolina
Election officers begin processing and scanning mail ballots forward of Election Day. After polls shut, the primary reported outcomes will doubtless be principally mail ballots in addition to early in-person votes. Election Day votes shall be counted and reported all through the night, with full outcomes anticipated by midnight.
Harris might seem to steer early because of mail ballots, whereas Trump may shut the hole as Election Day votes are counted.
If the election is as shut as polls counsel, the end result in North Carolina might stay unclear for per week or extra. Absentee ballots that arrive on Nov. 5, in addition to ballots from abroad and navy voters, are tallied through the 10-day canvass interval that follows Election Day. In 2020, media retailers didn’t name North Carolina for Trump till Nov. 13, 10 days after the election.
Pennsylvania
Maybe an important battleground, Pennsylvania didn’t have a transparent winner in 2020 for 4 days after Election Day, as officers sifted via an enormous backlog of mail ballots. The state is amongst solely a handful that don’t allow election employees to course of or tabulate mail ballots till 7 a.m. ET on Election Day, which implies it is going to doubtless once more take days earlier than the end result is understood.
With extra Democrats than Republicans voting by mail, the early outcomes – based mostly on in-person Election Day votes – will in all probability present Trump forward, however his lead will doubtless shrink as extra mail ballots are counted.
That sample in 2020 prompted Trump to falsely declare fraud. This 12 months, a brand new legislation requires most counties to announce at midnight on election evening what number of mail ballots stay to be counted in an effort to forestall conspiracy theories.
Wisconsin
Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is among the many few states that don’t enable election officers to course of or depend mail ballots till the morning of the election, which implies there could be a delay in reporting the outcomes of these early votes.
As well as, most of the state’s largest cities transport mail ballots to a centralized location for processing and tabulating. That may result in vital batches of votes getting reported suddenly within the early morning after polls shut.
In 2020, Trump and his allies falsely claimed fraud after Milwaukee, the state’s largest metropolis, reported practically 170,000 absentee ballots round 3:30 a.m. CT (0830 GMT), giving Biden an enormous spike that moved him into the lead for the primary time. However that enhance was anticipated because of the method the town processes these ballots and the truth that Democrats have been extra prone to vote by mail. An identical sample is possible in 2024.
(Aside from the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV employees and is printed from a syndicated feed.)