The USA is simply days away from its presidential election, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump focusing their campaigns on essential swing states, the place each vote issues.
As Election Day approaches, we take a more in-depth take a look at what to anticipate on the day itself and the way the outcomes might unfold.
When is the US election?
The election can be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
In most states, polling stations will open between 7am and 9am native time. Given the span of a number of time zones within the US, that might be between 11:00 GMT and 16:00 GMT.
At what time does the polling finish?
Ballot closing instances differ from state to state and typically county to county.
Nonetheless, most polling stations will shut between 6pm Japanese Time and midnight Japanese Time (22:00-04:00 GMT).
When does the US vote counting start, and when can we count on the outcomes?
Simply hours after the primary polls shut at 6pm Japanese Time (22:00 GMT), outcomes are anticipated to begin coming in. Nonetheless, some states will tally votes extra shortly than others. As polls shut a number of hours later in states to the west, their first outcomes will solely begin coming later – when some jap states may have already got been referred to as for Harris or Trump.
In a good race between them, counting may proceed properly previous election night time, and we would not know the winner for a number of days.
“It’s actually shut,” says Raymond J. La Raja, a political science professor on the College of Massachusetts Amherst.
In line with FiveThirtyEight’s Nationwide Polls tracker, Harris maintains a slim nationwide lead of about 1.2 factors as of Friday.
Nonetheless, La Raja defined that the polls won’t precisely seize some voter teams, which may result in stunning outcomes for both candidate. If the polls are unsuitable and the race shouldn’t be as tight as anticipated “then we’ll know fairly shortly,” he added.
“However my guess is we is not going to know within the first few days.
“It’s so shut [that a candidate might] not concede… so I might get out the espresso and tea as a result of it’s going to be a protracted night which may go into few days.”
What do we all know in regards to the swing states?
Seven swing states are anticipated to be key in deciding the presidential race consequence.
These key states embody Pennsylvania (19 Electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6), collectively totaling 93 Electoral Faculty votes.
A candidate wants at the least 270 out of 538 Electoral votes to win the election.
Polls in these states will shut between 7pm and 10pm Japanese Time (23:00 to 02:00 GMT).
A number of the first outcomes will probably come from Georgia, the place state regulation requires that each one early votes be counted and reported by 8pm Japanese Time (midnight GMT) on election night time.
North Carolina follows. On this state, votes can be counted and reported all through the night, with full outcomes anticipated by midnight (04:00 GMT).
In 2020, Nevada was gradual, and the state was not referred to as till 5 days after election day. Since then, the foundations have modified, and the method is anticipated to maneuver sooner this time. Nonetheless, the outcomes won’t be identified on election night time. The state permits late-arriving mail ballots, so it may take days till we all know the ultimate outcomes.
Pennsylvania, one of the necessary battleground states, didn’t have a transparent winner in 2020 for 4 days after Election Day. The state is one in every of just a few that don’t permit election staff to start processing mail ballots till Election Day, which suggests it can probably take a number of days earlier than the outcomes are identified.
In Michigan, the counting may very well be sooner than in earlier elections, because it now permits officers to start processing mail ballots earlier than Election Day, however we wouldn’t have a transparent time but for when the state is likely to be referred to as.
In Arizona, officers can start processing mail ballots as quickly as they’re obtained. First outcomes are anticipated to be reported at about 10pm Japanese Time (02:00 GMT), one hour after the polls shut.
Lastly, in Wisconsin, ballot staff can’t start processing ballots till Election Day, which suggests there is also delays, much like Pennsylvania. In line with a CNN report, outcomes usually are not probably till Wednesday.
What occurs if there’s a tie?
If there’s a 269-269 tie or a third-party candidate wins Electoral votes, stopping any candidate from reaching 270 votes, the step that follows is called a “contingent election”.
A contingent election is the method that takes place when the US Home of Representatives decides the winner. Every state’s delegation within the Home casts one vote, and a candidate should obtain a majority of the state delegation votes to win.
The US Senate would then select the vp with every senator casting one vote and a easy majority (51 votes) required to win.
There have been three cases of contingent elections within the US, in 1801, 1825 and 1837. The closest election lately was the 2000 presidential contest, when George W Bush gained 271 Electoral Faculty votes – only one greater than he wanted – after a controversial recount in Florida. Outgoing Vice President Al Gore gained 266 Electoral Faculty votes.
Is there concern a couple of potential delay this 12 months?
If the announcement of outcomes is delayed, “it undoubtedly will increase emotions of fraud and illegitimacy,” La Raja stated.
“The longer we wait, persons are like: what’s happening behind these closed doorways? How are they counting the ballots? Who’s mendacity?,” he added.
In line with him, it’s higher to have a good election and attain “the decision shortly.”
These fears and doubts arose in 2021, when 1000’s of supporters of then-President Trump stormed the Capitol, making an attempt to overturn his 2020 election loss and forcing lawmakers to run for security. This occurred after he instructed his supporters to “combat like hell.”
What has occurred in earlier years?
Within the final election in 2020, the outcomes have been introduced 4 days after the election on November 3, as soon as Pennsylvania’s outcomes have been confirmed. Within the earlier election in 2016, Hillary Clinton conceded to Donald Trump the morning after the election.
Within the 2020 election, some states went via what is called a “purple mirage”, with Trump showing to guide when the preliminary votes have been counted on election night time. A “blue shift” befell as extra, mail-in votes have been counted, and President Joe Biden took the lead.